ISSUE NO. 7 · TUESDAY 11 AUGUST 2026
41 months of rising jobseekers, £65m for electric cars, and Revolut's European licence
The pool of people looking for work in Britain has grown for 41 months without a break, and the number of jobs on offer has fallen for 22. Unemployment is 4.9% and the forecasts point closer to 5.3%. The remedy being urged on the government is lighter employment rules, which would matter a great deal if firms were declining to hire because of the paperwork. They are declining because they are not confident, and no statute has ever produced confidence.
The same shape turns up twice more today. Carmakers were handed £65m for electric vehicles and no movement whatsoever on the 2030 petrol and diesel deadline — and it is the deadline, not the cheque, that reprices a supply chain. Revolut collected a full French banking licence a year after the European Central Bank stopped it launching products at all. One of those is money and the other is permission. Permission is the one that changes what a business is allowed to do.
Below in full: why 41 months of rising jobseekers is a demand problem rather than a paperwork one, what £65m buys against an industry worth £25bn a year, and what Revolut's licence proves about the year it spent rebuilding. After those, the numbers, today's diary, and one calculator worth five minutes.
Lead
Jobseekers have risen for 41 straight months. Vacancies have fallen for 22.
Unemployment sits at 4.9% and the forecasts point closer to 5.3%. Temporary placements have now risen for a fourth month running, which is what employers do when they want the work done but will not commit to a permanent hire. The industry's answer is lighter employment rules, and red tape is the easiest thing to blame precisely because it is the easiest thing to change. It is not what kept jobseekers rising for 41 months while vacancies fell for 22. The next set of jobs data will settle this argument, and the deregulation debate will not. Read the full story →
The Numbers
The gilt has finally moved the right way — 4.99% so far in August against 5.10% across July, the first fall since June, and the gap over Bank Rate narrows from 1.35 points to 1.24. The index below is Friday's close rather than Monday's, which had not settled when this went to press.
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Bank Rate
3.75%
Unchanged since 18 Dec
Next decision
17 September
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CPI inflation
2.6%
June · above target
Bank of England target
0.6 above 2%
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10-year gilt
4.99%
August so far · ▼ 0.11 on July
Above Bank Rate by
1.24 points
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FTSE 100
10,901.10
▲ 0.31% at Friday's close
99% of 12-mth range · 9,096–10,911
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More News
£65m for electric vehicles, against an industry that hands the economy £25bn a year. The 2030 deadline did not move.
The money comes out of Drive35, a £4bn programme, with £50m of the £65m aimed specifically at scaling up electric vehicle production. Ministers had been expected to soften the petrol and diesel phase-out and did not. Money is the easy part: £65m is a statement of intent, and intent does not build a factory or reprice a supply chain. The mandate is where the real cost sits, and the industry knows it. The 2030 date, not the cheque, is the number that decides whether any of this lands. Read the full story →
Last summer the ECB stopped Revolut launching new products across 27 countries. This week it collected a French banking licence.
The licence comes from French regulators with the European Central Bank's approval, which is the part that matters — the same institution that objected has now signed off. Customers in France come first, with Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain following in later phases. It lands mid-way through a secondary share sale expected to value the business at $115bn, around £85.5bn. Revolut spent a year doing the least glamorous work in banking and got the most valuable thing a regulator can hand over. What happens in those other five markets will show whether the fix was structural or cosmetic. Read the full story →
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In plain English
Secondary share sale
A sale where existing shareholders — usually staff and early backers — sell their stakes to new investors, rather than the company issuing new shares. Revolut's is expected to value the business at $115bn, roughly £85.5bn, and not a penny of that goes into the bank.
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On the Diary
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Today, 9.30am BST — ONS labour market transformation update. The ONS's progress report on rebuilding the statistics that produce the 4.9% everyone has spent the week arguing about. Dry, and load-bearing.
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Today, 9.30am BST — ONS study on employment advisors in NHS Talking Therapies, 2014 to 2024. Ten years of data on whether putting employment support inside mental health services actually moves people off benefits. Narrow, and pointed on a day when the question is why nobody is hiring.
The Toolbox
One tool from the site each issue, picked to fit what has just happened. Free, no sign-up, and it shows its workings.
"Forty-one months into a market like this one, most people still cannot say what an offer is actually worth once tax, National Insurance and pension come out of it."
The Close
Two of today's three stories turn on permission rather than money. The 2030 mandate will shape what carmakers build long after £65m has been spent, and Revolut's licence is worth more than any funding round it has ever closed. The third is a labour market where the thing on offer — lighter rules — is not the thing that is missing. Thursday brings the second quarter's growth figure. If it disappoints, expect the red tape argument to get louder, and to be no more relevant than it is this morning.
If something here is wrong, or there is something you want dug into, just reply. It comes straight to me.
MJB
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